The Shemitah Cycle - 7-year Cycle

Do you know where the phrase “a sabbatical year” comes from? Most people know the meaning of taking 1 year off from work and focusing on something else, maybe traveling during that year. But the phrase actually comes from the Torah and is the seventh year of the seven-year agricultural cycle, which tells us to not use the land in the 7th year as the 7th year is a year where one should not harvest or plant any crops. The sabbatical year or “Shemitah Cycle” is not only used for agriculture, but also for predicting the financial markets. There are many cycles that investors are looking at to determine when to invest and when te retreat, another example next to the Shemitah cycle is the 16-year cycle or the sunspot cycle. 

How can someone use the Shemitah Cycle from the Torah for price prediction?

The Shemitah Cycle became famous after the book “The Mystery of the Shemitah (2014)” by Jonathan Cahn. In his publication, Jonathan explains that every 7th September the sabbatical year occurs and that it’s symbolic of “letting go”. Interestingly, a lot of market crashes and recessions have taken place during these 1-year periods.

Market crashes and recessions that have taken place during a Shemitah Year

1.1 Chart of the SP500 and the Shemitah years 

• 1916 – 1917: The stock market dropped 40% and many European countries are suffering an economic collapse.
• 1930-1931: The Great Depression, the worst financial crisis in human history.
• 1937 – 1938: Global Recession
• 1979 – 1980: Global Recession
• 1993 – 1994: Bond Markets Crash
• 2000 - 2001: Dotcom bubble pop followed by recession
• 2007 - 2008: Fall of the Lehman brothers (Housing market crash)
• 2021 - 2022: The stock market dropped 27% and Bitcoin dropped 80%

 

All the examples above are significant market crashes and recessions that all occurred during a Shemitah year. We can call it pure coincidence or is it possible that there is more going on here? Could there be a correlation? We are definitely not the first ones to analyze certain cycles. Many traders are well-known for analyzing certain time cycles and have been very accurate in their predictions, one example is William Delbert Gann.

How does the Shmitah Cycle apply to the markets currently?

We’ve just completed a Shemitah year starting from September 2021 till September 2022, which means that based on this cycle the financial markets are ready to continue their uptrend again. Of course, there are many other factors that investors and traders should take into consideration in terms of price prediction however, one should not worry about a sabbatical year based on this 7-year Shemitah cycle.

When is the next Shemitah year?

The next Shemitah Cycle will start September 2028 till September 2029. So it will be interesting to see what will happen with the financial and crypto markets during that time period.